Quarterly Comparison Reveals Accelerating Shift in India’s Crude Supplier Mix

A quarterly comparison of India’s crude oil imports throughout 2025 reveals an accelerating shift in supplier composition, with changes intensifying in the final months. While US crude imports to India increased by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion in the same period.
December 2025 data suggests the fourth quarter witnessed the most dramatic changes. Russian crude shipments to India totaled $2.71 billion in December, representing not just a 15.15% year-on-year decline from December 2024’s $3.2 billion, but more significantly a 27% drop from September’s $3.32 billion and a 35% plunge from November’s $3.72 billion, indicating accelerating momentum.
Other suppliers demonstrated increasingly strong quarterly performance. Saudi Arabia’s 61% December year-on-year growth likely reflected even stronger quarterly averages in Q4 compared to earlier periods. The United States’ 31% December gain to $569.30 million similarly suggests strengthening quarterly trends. Iraq and the UAE, contributing $2.37 billion and $1.65 billion in December, maintained steady quarterly patterns.
The quarterly acceleration coincides with the cumulative impact of policy changes. The US imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods on August 27, 2025 occurred in Q3, with full quarterly effects manifesting in Q4. Monthly Russian crude imports show the progression: $3.59 billion in August, $3.32 billion in September (Q3), then $3.56 billion in October, $3.72 billion in November, and $2.71 billion in December (Q4).
India’s total crude oil imports from all sources reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The quarterly acceleration suggests continued momentum into 2026.